Wow, Larry- at first I thought you had a copy of the PowerPoint I use for the class as I have almost the exact same photo and diagram. Thanks for posting it.
I agree with almost everything that has been posted except I CANNOT RECOMMEND THE USE OF FLOREAT (type) HANGERS.
Larry is spot on. The majority of damage/failure to lath and plaster walls (note that I say
lath and plaster walls as modern plaster does not use lath and you do not have the same problems) is from the keys breaking (or having already been broken). DO NOT POUND NAILS INTO LATH AND PLASTER WALLS.
An installer can break keys but the symptoms may not manifest themselves for years. In an older home, one does not know what was hung (or attempted to be hung) before nor can one see the keys or the condition of them. Age can also cause bond failure between the plaster and the scratch coat.
If the keys are broken, there is nothing supporting the scratch coat and the weight of a newly hung picture could be the proverbial "straw that breaks the camel's back" - the stress of the weight of the picture could be all that is necessary for the scratch coat and surface plaster to pull the plaster off of the lath. In CA, earthquakes can cause this to happen years later.
100% of the failures that I have seen have been when a Floreat type hanger has been used. The problems I see are two fold. One is that the nail is tempered blued steel. If the head is struck at an odd angle, the nail may develop stress cracks and will eventually fall off. I have seen this many times when we have been called into a home and the hanger is there just supported by the stumps of the nails with no heads.
Another problem is that the uncoated nail reacts with the lime in the plaster and corrodes making a rust spot or dissolves to the point of failure.
The last problem - and why I just won't use these hangers, is that to increase the holding power of these hangers, the same size nail is used in greater quantities. The problem is that if you have a weakened area of the wall, you are just exaserbating the problem by giving the hanger and picture more grip to pull the wall down.
The nails are very short. Sometimes shorter than the combined thickness of the plaster and scratch coat and the nail itself may never penetrate the lath itself - or may actually go into the space between the lath (meaning you have actually drilled through the keyways.) and you are relying on the density of the scratch coat in the key to support the shear weight of the picture. Not so much of a problem with lighter pictures, but a potential failure for a larger picture, especially if you only use one hanger and a wire to hang.
I also can't advocate/suport the "poor man's drillbit" idea of using the same type of nail with the head cut off to make a hole. There are no flutes on the smooth shank of the nail, so the abrasive scratch coat is basically being pulverized as the tip turns in the hole. This has to make a hole larger in diameter than the already narrow, thin nail. This means that you most likely will loose the "interference" fit of the nail being snug in the plaster and you will be relying on gravity and the angle of the hook/nail to support the weight of the picture. You have no way of removing material as you drill into the plaster. What if you hit a bit of aggregate and your hole is oblong?
There is a Floreat type hanger made by Frameware that we do use to hang very heavy things, but we use the hole in the center with an appropriate wall anchor that goes all the way through the lath and then we screw the hanger to it. We do not use the nails.
We use Moore hangers (the ones with a twist) almost exclusively for our installations. I prefer them because the twist holds the nail at a constant angle, the nail is larger and longer so it will pass through all layers (including the lath) and if it is in a keyway and the bond fails, it will only slip to the top of the lath instead of sliding down the wall. (I have seen this and it looks like claw marks and the picture slid down to the floor). The nail in these hangers is large enough that you can use a small carbide tipped drill bit (if you do not use a carbide bit, you will only get limited uses out of a conventional bit) to dill a hole that is the appropriate size.
We recently security installed over 700 pieces (three holes each) at the UCSD Medical center in Lath and Plaster walls - so I have a bit of first hand experience with plaster walls.
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