I wonder why nobody has responded. Could it be that everyone is getting the same mixed signals?
The year has been unremarkably OK for us in most ways. However, everything about this year's business climate *is* remarkable.
The first half was ho-hum. August was like Christmas. September was surprisingly on target. October was dismal. November so far has been way up. We're on target for our YTD projections.
We plan carefully, but business is so volatile that the holiday time is a huge unknown. Could be good, could be bad, could be mediocre. Who knows?
Some framers are doing very well, and others are barely making ends meet. Whether up or down, there's more going on than a typical business cycle.
Consumer confidence seems to be the dominant factor right now; it seems to vary from one neighborhood to the next, and from one day to the next. The evaporating dot-coms, instability in all stock market sectors, fuel prices up & down, terrorist attacks, the fear factor, the war, local employment figures, exceptionally good long-term interest rates, low commodity prices, stiff competition in every industry -- this year we're seeing it all. Whatever you want to believe about the economy, good or bad, there's data in support of every theory.
My friends are paying down debt and bracing for a long, hard winter. They're hesitating, but they still have cash and might spend big where they find irresistible buying opportunities. Me, too.
