2004 Business Predictions

Jim Miller

SPFG, Supreme Picture Framing God
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May 19, 2000
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19,082
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Suburban Central Ohio
Some of us are relieved to see 2003 pass, and some of us just hope 2004 will be as good.

Long about now, all of us must be pondering how we're going to thrive or survive in the coming year. What are your plans for 2004? What are your predictions for the near future?

Considering the changes in our industry, the economy, politics, terror, consumer confidence, and whatever other factors you can think of,

How do you think 2004 will shape up...
(a)...for your business?
(b)...for the framing industry?
(c)...for retailing in general?

The answers any of us give would be speculative -- except Bob Carter, who has been researching all of this for his upcoming class. Would you like to share a few "ticklers", Bob?
 

tnframer408

SGF, Supreme Grumble Framer
Joined
Dec 11, 2001
Posts
1,506
From
Knoxville TN
My business: up at least 25%--maybe as high as 35% thru a more sleek and aggressive business plan on which I've spent the past several weeks.

Economy: booming. Dow at 11,000 by Dec. 2004--maybe higher

Retail in general: booming along with the economy, Look at the malls now. People aren't empty handed, they're carrying BAGS and BAGS of stuff. And I don't care if it's WalMart, Macy's, Tiffany, Target--people are buying.

Now our goal is to make sure we get some of that discretionary money, particularly the high-dollar discretionary money.

Don't cheap out--don't do huge discounts, keep on course and on plan.

I think it's gonna be great. I'm cranked up. I'm ready to stay open tomorrow.
 

wpfay

Comfort Badger
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Jacksonville Beach, FL USA
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Sunshine Frames
Jim, Having come off of a record rebound from 2002 (Up somewhere around 40%, but 2002 was fairly abysmal)and now having money to work with I have started plans to continue to forge ahead in developing my business. I don't think that my position as "old man on the block" is going to help me as much in the future as it has, and I am starting, with the help of a young and energetic Ad Agency, a very directed marketing campaign.

The economy should stay the course for quite a while. Since I'm no economist, I have nothing other than casual observation and gut feelings to go on, but it seems that the economists haven't had much success in predicting economic trends with all that knowledge and information, so I might just be right.

The industry will have a bit of a Darwinian experience, but the independents that remain will be better suited to survive and prosper. I also believe that the BB's will have to tighten up to remain competitive, and we may see some consternation at that level as well.

For me at least, I predict a happy, if not hectic New Year.
 

UzZx32QU

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Michael, I agree. We've had several fault starts in the last six months. I've never seen a yoyo year as 2003. In the end 2003 was very close to 2002. I predict a super year, not scientific but a gut feeling.


framer

[ 12-31-2003, 09:42 PM: Message edited by: framer tg: ]
 

tnframer408

SGF, Supreme Grumble Framer
Joined
Dec 11, 2001
Posts
1,506
From
Knoxville TN
O one other item: housing starts at record pace, andf if money and mortgage rates stay within reasonable bounds, we'll see even higher pace.

This means more walls to decorate, maybe not by the end of 04, but surely well into 05.
 

AWG

SGF, Supreme Grumble Framer
Joined
Jun 12, 2003
Posts
1,021
From
North Carolina - Picture Framing Capital of the Wo
With a real marketing plan we're looking at a realistic goal of no less than 25% over 2003, and I think we have a shot at 30%.

The short version: fewer "cheap" frames and an expanded selection of "good stuff"; better plan for selling original artwork in our gallery; better deals from vendors to help increase profit% and smarter pricing.

Our average ticket for 2003 was up 10% from 2002; Everything we do will help continue to increase our ticket AND draw more customers.

Here's to a BIG 2004!!!

Tony
 

Ron Eggers

SPFG, Supreme Picture Framing God
Joined
Jul 6, 2001
Posts
16,932
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Wisconsin
Originally posted by framer tg::
In the end 2003 was very close to 2004.
Jim asked for a prediction. I think we got a prophecy. :D

from framer: The wife came and picked me up before I could proof the reply. I hope that 04 will not de javu of 03.

[ 12-31-2003, 09:45 PM: Message edited by: framer tg: ]
 

JRB

PFG, Picture Framing God
Joined
Aug 12, 2000
Posts
7,106
From
San Diego, CA
Our sales were down 10.25 percent from 2002, however our profits were up considerably over that year. The reasons, we concentrated on selling "in stock" products and our own closed corner frames. We have been watching our spending carefully and we expect similar results for 2004.

It is hard to guess what 2004 is going to be like, I have a gut feeling that our sales will increase this year. After forty years in this industry I am probably right, but who knows for sure except maybe Bob. Since 9/11 it has been really hard to predict anything. I did not expect it, but 2003 was great for my stock portfolio. I hope that repeats itself.

One thing for sure is, I wish all of us great year.

John
 

Terry Scidmore CPF

MGF, Master Grumble Framer
Joined
Jul 5, 2001
Posts
691
From
Seattle, WA 98168
I ended 2003 tied with 2002. 2003 was a study of the best and worst for me - the worst January in 20 years, the best August in 20 years. Nothing was predictable except that there was a drop off in business every time Boeing announced another layoff or passing out of pink slip warning notices. My number of transactions was down 12%, my average transaction was up 15%, and my net profit was up 16% over 2002. I ended 2003 with a list of goals for 2004, and I am here at work today starting on a couple of them.

I HOPE that 2004 will be a year in which I can gain more new customers than the economy up here takes away, that I can institute the changes that I need to do in my business to continue to keep customers and attract new customers, and that our local economy grows in a steady, strong manner - no big booms and busts, please!

And I wish everyone the best for the New Year - Happiness, Health, Peace, Love and Friendship, and Enough that our "needs" our met, even if all of our "wants" are not met!
 

lyoncat

CGF II, Certified Grumble Framer Level 2
Joined
Sep 19, 2001
Posts
456
From
N.Franklin,CT USA
I am going to try and NOT let the factors you mentioned affect how I do business.
Marketing is big for me right now, as we are nearly finished with most of our construction on our building. Time & $$$ have been poured into that part, and will soon be freed for promoting.
I feel fortunate that I survived a rather chaotic year. I realize this is a journey, and will continue along with my plan.

I also believe that the new world view we have all had to endure is becoming more of our reality, and we are adjusting accordingly. In general, I feel that the economy will improve, as it is part of our basic nature to survive in the face of uncertainty.

I also hold a strong believe that the type of service we all offer should, and could, be recognized more. I love the fact that I do not work in a business that can be offered just anywhere. There is so much to learn, and each job has it's own merit. BB's cannot compete with that passion.

The Grumble has brought together many bright and good business people. We are all learning from each other, which is strengthing our skills, and belief in what we do. This will make for a stronger market for framers.

I am babbling on at this point. So much easier to talk than write.
 
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