Population question

[Matoaka]

Somewhere in the warrens of the government printing offices, there is (or used to be) a volumn that established the population base needed to support a particular type of business... e.g., 1500 households needed to support a dry cleaning operation.

Does anyone know what population base is needed to support a frame shop? Or where I might go to look up this information myself?

Thanks!

[MnSue]

LJ says "at least 10,000" population market share. In my exploration of shop ownership, that number has been stated to me often. Valid or not - I'm sure others will comment.

[Baer Charlton]

LJ got it from Victor who actually quoted the USG stats correctly at 1.5 successful shops/10k of population or 3,800 homes.

Some places it holds true, and others it varies slightly. I've seen towns of 15,000 people surrounded by another 20,000 that have no framer.

Then there is North Carolina.......

[Terry Scidmore CPF]

I'm wondering if the "complexion" or "makeup" of the population isn't important, too.

I know that TV research says that the average framing customer is a white female - 35 - 55 years old, and earns over $50,000 per year - something like that.

But what if you are located in a town/community where the 10,000 demographics are mostly college students for a good part of the year, or cowboys, or sports fans, or crabbers, or government workers, or on-line gamblers, or whatever.

My community is very mixed - the local elementary schools generally have an average of 27 different languages/dialects. My experience is the latino population, asian, middle eastern, east african, soviet block countries, african american, etc. have different tastes, needs, price ranges, time tables, you name it. They have different concepts of what framing is and what they want to display in their homes - and different reasons for wanting to display it. They are not the same as my female white customers.

I'm wondering if our industry is doing any research into the changing demographics in the country. Are we missing the boat by seeking only the white, female, 35 - 55, with a certain income?

[Jim Miller]

IMHO, the best recent survey is the one by PMAI/PPFA. It is very comprehensive.

Survey data may be interpreted in different ways. I think the indications are that our industry -- decorative wall decor, which includes pretty much everything we could hang on a wall -- is growing, some say at a faster rate than the general economy.

However, my segment of the industry -- consumer-custom framing and art sales -- is shrinking. Instead of buying unframed art from us, consumers are buying it online. And instead of coming to us for custom framing locally, increasing numbers of consumers select from the newer, better quality, wider range of factory framed art.

Aside from the fact that this factory framed art is better and more plentiful than it used to be, it is being produced in other countries at very low cost, which creates price points that make a consumer's head spin in delight, and a custom framer's head spin in disbelief.

Also consider that this factory framed art is now being sold by all kinds of retailers, in convenient places for consumers to see it and buy it. It isn't just in furniture stores and upscale department stores anymore. Wal-Mart, CVS, the local supermarket, and soon the corner gas station will have cheap, pretty good framed art to sell.

My take is that, as our segment of the industry continues to diminish, future custom framers will have carved themselves a niche in their local market. I've got mine all mapped out...hope it continues to work as well as it does right now.

[Bob Carter]

Terry-I agree with Jim

But, suppose you had that raw, national data

What the heck would you do with it? Suppose it said that the age group went up by 5 years-Aside from some very specific targeted advertising that virtually none of us do effectively, what would you do with that data?

Suppose that the target audience was now 25-35 Hispanic men?

The sad truth is that, even when armed with such data, we don't do much about it. In fact, we often dispute it if it doesn't fit what we currently do

A case in point?

Surveys tell us (repeatedly) that a very large portion (most recent, right at 50% of those that actually got something framed) spent less than $100 on their last framing project

Bet the farm that several will contest that finding. And go double or nothing, that many will suggest that it isn't relevant to them an dthat "their" customers spend so much more (yada yada yada).. The trouble is those without addressing a solution to that "50% problem" will surely be limited to "their" customers and not much more.

So, with a very specific data and no corrective action, I'm not sure that additional, more subjective shifts would actually be of much benefit

Jim is correct in that data is available

Remember "Without data, we are just a bunch of jerks with opinions"

Who said that?

[Baer Charlton]

The three of you point out the inequities of Statistics. It's easy to say... 8% have been in a frame shop....

but I bet there are regions that that can go as high as 20-25% and other places in west texas where the cowboys roam and nobody goes to a framer.

That's why the "demographics" of age and income become so important to that report from PMA/PPFA. They can lead you to target certain neighborhoods that spend our dollars.. instead of just neighborhoods.

[Terry Scidmore CPF]

Right on, Baer!

I guess that I wasn't very clear. I was trying to point out that there might be more to consider than just xxx population needed to support a frame shop.

I don't believe that the PPFA survey looked at ethnic background. I'm not trying to discount the survey - it is very good and is a great benefit to the membership and our industry.

If I understand the survey, I believe that it supports Baers assertion - that location and marketing to the one or two population profiles most likely to use custom framing services is a better strategy than just looking at population numbers.

My question about demographics trends reflects my experience in my changing retail environment, and might serve as a heads up for others in transitioning communities.

My community - being "so cosmopolitan" (as the business brokers politely put it) certainly follows the survey results - lack of interest in custom framing services being more prevelant with lower income segements, greater tendency to use a mass merchandiser over an independent, and price as the primary reason for not using custom framing services, among other factors that the survey reflected.

And yes, Bob, "under $100" is the magical price expressed by the majority of my customers when we get to the cost of custom framing. They say "under $100" in many languages, regardless of the size, the number of pictures, mats, fillets, moulding, fabric, or glazing choices.

[Bob Carter]

Hi Terry- I apologize if you thought I was being too direct to you. I know you well enough to appreciate that you are a very good student of business

Your query however might be best answered in an internal surey of your own demographic base

One absolute tool used by the big guys is that once they find a concept (or store or market) they carefully monitor those demographic characteristics and then attempt to "mirror that characteristic" wherever else it can be found

We have too many variables to make that technique meaningful. Plus we simply have way too few "success" stories where we can draw meaningful conclusions.

But, I do feel if you can identify your own "strength" demographically, then you can compare it to your market as a whole

Now, in the "For What it's Worth" department, I do think the age demographic of those using our services (small independent framers) vs all others to be most daunting

I would love to hear what others are doing about that dynamic. We did a large workshop with Bill McCurry at the San Diego PMA last October

[Terry Scidmore CPF]

Not at all, Bob. I can see what you and Jim are trying to get us to think about. I appreciate both of you for putting the bug in our ears!

Yes, the age issue is daunting, and I would also like to hear what others are doing. Why not start a thread about this, Bob?

And that also leads us back to Susans question about the population numbers needed to sustain a frame shop. Many of us are in neighborhoods that have adequate numbers, just not the "right" numbers for the type of business we are.

[Matoaka]

And maybe the next census will bring us up-to-date on the population numbers and demos....

In the meantime, I think most stats reflect that great word: "average". (Which we all know exists somewhere between Pleasantville and The Ninth Gate.) And the best place to check out the numbers, for me any way, is the local grocery stores. Everybody's gotta eat! More seniors are at the store, more disabled people are getting out, more people are buying the store brands. The Mexican and Asian sections are getting bigger, and the tricked-out coffee bars are not turning a profit. Paperbacks and magazines have been replaced by racks of cheap, plastic toys, and the pet food section continues to boom. Somewhere, inside this store, is the best demographic breakdown in the world for my shop. graemlins/popc.gif

[Jim Miller]

Information overload comes to mind here.

It's fun to get the "big picture" with professional statistics, such as the survey done by PMAI/PPFA. It's good food for thought, but in reality, I'm not too concerned about large-area demographic statistics or trends. I'm much more concerned about what's happening in a 20 mile radius of my shop.

To put it another way, I don't care what the rest of the world is doing, so long as I can determine and provide products and services of interest to the people within my specific market.

Government census data and commercial demographic data provides information on trends and influences that may eventually permeate our entire population -- or may not. New influences affecting consumer buying habits in California right now might not find Ohio until I'm long gone.

For what I need to know about operating my local business, I can learn more useful information by quizzing people on the sidewalk in front of my store. They will show me and tell me how the trends are playing out in my patch, faster and more accurately than any national demographic survey could.