Projecting sales from previous sales periods

[RozR]

I am working from a business plan that I created when I first opened my business.

For the projections for the 2nd year of business, we took last year's figures and calculated a % increase across the board.

This has worked pretty well to judge highs and lows (not realizing some of the 2003 economic conditions would be what they were) but I just realized my numbers for this month were based on a really big corporate project that was out of the ordinary for last year.

How do you handle projections when you have a large number like this in your records?

Thanks,
Roz

[JFeig]

Remember that a projection or budget is simply an educated guess based upon several assumptions, a bit of historical figures, trends, hopes, industry averages etc. etc. etc.

It is OK if they are not 100% on target. The actual target is a better goal than no target at all.

[Walt C]

If the big project was unique and unlikely to happen again, I would back it out of the monthly sales and apply my projection % to the "normal" sales.

As JFeig mentioned it is just and educated guess, so you can "guess" based on the best facts available.